Huawei bloccata da Google: cosa succederà ora?

Dopo settimane di clima teso con il governo americano, è arrivata una notizia che siamo sicuri non renderà molto contenti gli utenti Huawei. Google ha infatti deciso, con effetto immediato, di sospendere la collaborazione con il colosso cinese relativamente al sistema operativo Android.

Questa è una decisione senza precedenti che potrebbe avere delle ripercussioni importanti sul mercato di smartphone e tablet, andando a colpire, oltre al produttore, anche i consumatori. Prima di addentrarci in questo labirinto però, vediamo da dove scaturisce questo stop di Google a Huawei.

Perché Huawei non potrà più utilizzare Android

La storia che ha portato allo stop a Huawei da parte di Google non è certo avvenuta in sole 24 ore. Da più di un anno infatti il governo americano, vero fautore di questa mossa, si batte per bloccare l’operatività del gigante cinese nel suolo americano.

Dovete sapere infatti che questa disputa è nata a causa della rete 5G. Huawei infatti è uno dei main player anche nel campo delle telecomunicazioni e giocherà un ruolo fondamentale nella diffusione del nuovo standard di rete telefonica a partire dal prossimo anno. Questo significa che, sia negli Stati Uniti che in Europa, tante delle infrastrutture utilizzate avrebbero dovuto essere importate dalla Cina.

Le accuse di spionaggio nel 2018

Il primo caso che ha visto il ban di Huawei da parte del governo degli Stati Uniti ha riguardato appunto le future reti 5G. Secondo l’attuale amministrazione infatti, Huawei avrebbe utilizzato delle backdoor per spiare i cittadini americani, meritandosi così l’esclusione dai bandi per la nuova tecnologia di telecomunicazione. Dopo questo caso gli Stati Uniti hanno cercato di imporre la decisione anche agli altri partner mondiali con il risultato che Giappone, Nuova Zelanda, Australia e Taiwan hanno cessato la collaborazione con l’azienda cinese.

5g huawei
Fonte: Macitynet.it

In Europa invece la situazione è più complicata e per il momento nessuno degli stati membri ha espresso posizioni definitive contro Huawei. Nemmeno l’arresto del direttore finanziario, avvenuto in Canada lo scorso dicembre, sembra aver smosso più di tanto l’opinione pubblica. Il vero dilemma riguarda le ragioni che hanno portato a questa escalation commerciale contro Huawei che non sembrano essere limitate solo al rischio di spionaggio.

Già nelle scorse settimane gli incontri USA-Cina sui dazi commerciali, avevano portato a una rottura degli equilibri, con un aumento delle tasse che avrebbe gravato sullo stato orientale a favore dell’America. Non bastasse questo elemento ad aprire una possibile crisi dei rapporti fra le due superpotenze, sulla scia del governo USA Google ha deciso di togliere l’utilizzo della licenza commerciale Android ad Huawei, rendendogli disponibile soltanto la parte open-source. Ma cosa comporta questo in termini pratici per chi possiede uno smartphone o un tablet del produttore cinese?

Cosa cambia per chi ha uno smartphone Huawei

Huawei e il suo settore smartphone hanno avuto una crescita incredibile negli ultimi anni, diventando il secondo produttore a livello mondiale, con centinaia di milioni di dispositivi attivi. Il ban di Google avrà quindi effetti che si ripercuoteranno su tantissimi utenti anche qui in Italia ed è bene capire quali saranno le reali conseguenze. Ancora più grave è il fatto che Google abbia definito come immediate le procedure di blocco delle licenze, lasciando nel limbo degli eventi tutti gli utilizzatori.

La prima cosa che vogliamo dirvi è che i vostri smartphone Huawei non smetteranno di funzionare domani. La mossa di Google infatti andrà ad agire sugli aggiornamenti sia di sistema che di sicurezza, che non verranno più forniti all’azienda. Si tratta di una situazione che avrà gli impatti maggiori nel medio e lungo periodo, quando la mancanza dei servizi Google sugli smartphone Huawei impedirà di utilizzare i servizi proprietari, come Play Store, Gmail o Google Drive.

Nel breve periodo invece, a farne le spese dovrebbero essere gli smartphone non ancora presentati, che dovrebbero perdere il supporto definitivamente. Secondo alcune voci (non troppo assurde in realtà) questa sarebbe una mossa per favorire una possibile ripresa di Apple che sta perdendo lo scontro con i colossi asiatici, Huawei e Xiaomi fra tutti. Pur di non affossare le sorti di un’azienda americana quindi, sembrerebbe che Google sia favorevole ad ostacolare uno dei suoi più grandi collaboratori degli ultimi anni.

huawei

Come potete vedere da questo grafico infatti, 4 dei primi 5 produttori a livello mondiale sono cinesi. Si tratta di una vero e proprio monopolio del mercato, ottenuto puntando su di un rapporto qualità/prezzo nettamente migliore rispetto alla concorrenza.

Huawei però non si è fatto trovare impreparata e avrebbe già a disposizione un piano B che la porterebbe fuori da questa possibile crisi. Anche Google infatti, mettendo alla porta uno dei suoi partner fondamentali, avrebbe davvero molto da perdere.

Pronto il sistema operativo proprietario?

Huawei non ha mai nascosto di stare da tempo lavorando al proprio sistema operativo per smartphone e tablet. A confermarlo pochi mesi fa è stato proprio il CEO Richard YU. Tale alternativa è infatti già in sviluppo nel caso in cui l’azienda non avesse più potuto sfruttare Android per i suoi dispositivi.

Secondo l’ultima presa di posizione dell’azienda poi, non ci saranno problemi per gli smartphone già in possesso degli utenti. Questi continueranno a funzionare come previsto e sarà garantita l’assistenza post vendita come concordato al momento dell’acquisto. Google in realtà aveva già confermato anche questo, che per i dispositivi già in commercio continuerà a fornire i servizi della G-Suite.

Più problematica invece potrebbe essere la situazione per gli aggiornamenti, soprattutto per gli ultimi arrivati come Mate 20 Pro e P30 Pro. Se la situazione non dovesse risolversi, l’aggiornamento alla prossima versione, ovvero Android Q, potrebbe essere a rischio. Questo possibile scenario dovrebbe portare a una netta accelerazione da parte di Huawei, che rischierebbe altrimenti di scontentare i suoi utenti.

La “terza via” di Huawei e dei produttori cinesi

In una situazione del genere non si contano le speculazioni e le teorie che vengono esposte da tutti gli organi d’informazione. Soprattutto ad uno stadio larvale dove le carte in campo non sono chiare i dati sono scarsi. Se osservate il grafico che abbiamo inserito sopra, noterete che i quattro marchi cinesi citati, hanno uno share del mercato Android del 54.6 a livello globale. Questo significa che più di uno smartphone su quattro fra quelli acquistati è prodotto da Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi e Oppo.

Questo dettaglio, per nulla insignificante, dà ai produttori cinesi un potere contrattuale davvero incredibile. Riuscite a immaginare infatti cosa accadrebbe se i quattro marchi facessero cartello? E se adottassero una posizione univoca rispetto alla decisione di Google e del governo americano? Android perderebbe così più del 50% degli smartphone sul quale è installato, insieme alla maggior parte delle revenues che provengono dai servizi associati. Si tratta di un’ipotesi che può essere valutata come remota ma che non può essere del tutto esclusa dallo schema valutativo.

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